The Mellman Group for the DSCC (8/6-10, likely voters):
Jim Martin (D): 36
Saxby Chambliss (R-inc): 42
Allen Buckley (L): 3
(MoE: ±4%)
Very nice numbers for Jim Martin. That’s is what some in the biz would like to call “striking distance”.
Chambliss’ job approval rating is only 37-38 — soft numbers for an incumbent.
Yeah, Chambliss has raised a ton of money, but this is a race that the DSCC has their eyes on, and we could see the committee getting frisky here.
Very good news. The DSCC/Martin campaign/Georgia Democratic Party/etc. needs to hit early, hard, and often. Not many people know Chambliss, apparently. Don’t let him define himself.
Very exciting. I had hope for GA for a long time, then it becauser a second or even third tier. Now, with a fine candidate and good numbers, this race may become a big one.
Martin cannot let Chambliss define him now to voters. DSCC needs to jump in early, as the onslaught of negative ads is coming.
Also, might we netroots send some help to Martin?
37-38 in approvals leaves 25% with no opinion of Chambliss. I suspect that number would be much lower if voters were being pushed in any way.
If not, we can forget about this race.
This should put this race ahead of TX, OK, NE, ID and maybe even KS.
Close race, with plenty of room to grow. If Chambliss wins again, he will be entrenched the next time. It’s now or never to get rid of him.
I think Georgians have remorse over falling for the Bush/Rove nonsense about Cleland.
I’d like to see a independent poll but that’s a nice result.
Saxy has a bigger CoH advantage then all the other Races to Watch except Texas and it’s the second most expensive media market which makes me skeptical of our chances still but this is now ahead of Texas, Oaklahoma, Kansas and Idaho in my book. Pretty much tied for likest Race to Watch with Nebraska.
I’d like to see what happens to the polls once Saxy goes on the air too.
that this race is competitive. This poll is closer than some recent ones in other 1st/2nd tier states, and shows that Martin’s win has put the GA seat in play. Martin could just squeak by Saxby – wouldn’t that be sweet? At a minimum, he is going to tie down Saxby and his money so it cannot be used elsewhere.
And an internal to boot. In reality the gap is probably nearer to double digits but it seems Chambliss could very well be under 50% and far from out of the woods. More of this please.
comparing all the primary candidates against chambliss had martin down about 50-40. i’d expect it to be around a 10 point lead maybe a little less with a primary bounce.
this is winnable, though obviously difficult. w/ dscc money and obama’s organizing heft and chambliss’ weak imprint, if martin runs a great campaign this could get very tight.
i’m intrigued by “andgarden”‘s assertion that “No, I don’t believe there will be a massive increase in the black vote in Georgia. Not without an even increase in the white vote.” What is that based on?
Is there a KKK voter reg drive equivalent to Obama’s in Georgia? Or are there tens of thousands of white voters energized and excited that there’s finally a white candidate to vote for for President:)?
It turns out that Chambliss is not such a nice guy. You may remember the Imperial Sugar dust explosion last February that killed 13 workers and seriously injured dozens more. The Senate recently held a hearing and Chambliss did not behave very nicely, attacking the sincerity of a company whistleblower
Another internal poll. I wouldn’t take it at face value.
Even though this is an internal poll, I still think this is impressive. I think Martin can still win this. But for the moment, I support Chambliss.